Why is it that practically every stat published by council is highly questionable? The latest example concerns their statement that for the financial years of 2015/16 and 2016/17 planning permit approvals were granted for the following numbers of net new dwellings –
- 2604 net (additional) dwellings approved in in 2015/2016.
- 2728 net (additional) dwellings approved in in 2016/2017.
Councils are required to forward their data to the State Government’s DWELP. The numbers are then put onto the Planning Permit Activity website. This section of the department basically serves as a repository for data that has been supplied by councils. Thus we are left with the question of the accuracy of the supplied data. Which figures are residents to believe? Council can’t have it both ways. Either the figures quoted above are a fiction, or those supplied to the government are a fiction.
Here is what the Planning Permit Activity reports as the results for 2015/15 and 2016/17 based on their quarterly reports (See: https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/publications/planning-permit-activity-in-victoria/planning-permit-activity-quarterly-report ) Readers can then backtrack to the various three quarterly reports and add up the figures for themselves.
2015/16 – 2133
2016/17 – 1806
The discrepancies are not minor – equalling roughly 500 net new dwelling approvals in 2015/16 and 900 in 2016/17. How can this happen and if deliberate, then what is the purpose?
Perhaps the answer might lie in these figures (which are correct) provided by council –
Within the past two years we have seen the following Building Permit net dwelling approvals:
· 1681 net (additional) dwellings approved in in 2015/2016.
· 1993 net (additional) dwellings approved in in 2016/2017.
According to council, the correlation per year between building permits and planning permits approaches the 1000 discrepancy mark. But if we look at the Permit Activity numbers from the government website, the discrepancy halves and makes the following council statement that much harder to swallow –
However, planning permits and even building permits are not always acted upon, and so they do not paint an accurate picture of what will be constructed. In fact, ID consulting advice show that historically in Glen Eira, only just over half of dwellings approved through a building permit will go on to be constructed.
Does this paragraph mean it will never be built, or just for the respective year? What about ten years down the track? Are we still maintaining that only 50% is built? We admit that there is land banking, or some developers may go bust, but we certainly dispute the figure of 50%. Obtaining land, planning permits, building permits, constitutes a huge investment. Then there are undoubtedly finance costs, interest, land tax, etc. etc. Money is in building and selling and since property prices are already at an all time high, and forecast to drop, why would any developer sit back with his planning and building permits and not act on these? And finally, is such a statement by council intended to cast doubt on the fact that Glen Eira is without a shadow of a doubt the development capitol of the South East?
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Glen Eira Debates 
September 28, 2017 at 6:59 PM
Independently of the blog, I have checked the stats and can confirm the numbers of 2133 and 1806 are correct. They are the sums of what the state summaries of planning permits state to be “The net number of additional dwellings approved” for each quarter so it seems fairly black and white. There’s nothing immediately obvious that Council may be including in their higher figures that may be missing in the state figures. That aside, I suppose the more important question is the % of permits acted on. Some proper statistical analysis catering for the lag between permit approval and build completion would be interesting.
September 28, 2017 at 7:05 PM
Yes, I’d like to know how you can get a 900 difference when we’re supposed to be talking about the same thing.
September 29, 2017 at 7:18 AM
This stuff is fundamental and has to be right for future planning. Council’s statement that we will just meet the 9,000 new dwelling projection to 2031 hasn’t been justified by background data. Justification is a key gap in the planning process so far and needs to be resolved.
September 29, 2017 at 9:58 AM
Correct. Planning must be based on the most reliable projections and not data plucked from someone’s backside to support already made decisions.
September 29, 2017 at 1:36 PM
There is little doubt about the rate of development and increase in population in Glen Eira so why hasn’t the open space levy been used to buy new open space? What are they waiting for, a slight of hand to spend this money on building new pavilions or renovations at the Town Hall.